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Economic Growth

Can we predict recessions using only unemployment data? Applying the Sahm rule to OECD countries

5 minute readThe accurate and early identification of economic turning points is a longstanding challenge. While in some countries, recession periods are formally determined by business cycle committees – as is the case in the United States – these processes are complex and often take considerable time to conclude. Yet policymakers, economists and financial market participants require more timely signals of shifting economic conditions to support effective and well-informed decision-making.

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Featured

MNE-thing is possible: New OECD-UNSD data release strengthens open evidence on multinational enterprises

5 minute readMultinational enterprises (MNEs) play an increasingly central role in the global economy. They influence trade patterns, investment flows, and production across countries, yet their complex organisational structures can be difficult to map out using traditional statistical sources. The Multinational Enterprise Information Platform (MEIP) was developed to help address this challenge by offering a clearer view of large MNEs and the cross-border networks through which they operate.

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Featured

The Re-Export Puzzle: How the OECD addresses the largest source of distortion in merchandise trade statistics

7 minute readInternational trade statistics offer a picture of trade flows between countries and play a critical role in shaping economic policy, guiding trade negotiations, and supporting evidence-based research and decision-making. These statistics are reported from two different perspectives: that of the exporter and that of the importer. Users expect the two numbers to match but this is not always the case. Addressing them is essential for achieving a coherent and accurate view of international trade.

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Government, National Accounts

Tips for reading government debt-to-GDP ratios

5 minute readThis article explores how and why different debt-to-GDP ratios for the same country and period may be correct. While there is only one figure used for GDP, there are usually several official measures of debt in OECD countries. The differences reflect users’ demand for different indicators. There may also be differences in the ‘valuation’ and ‘consolidation’ bases of the debt measures. Individuals and institutions using or quoting debt-to-GDP ratios should be aware of the differences behind the indicators.

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by oecdstatistics
Globalisation, New Data, Trade

Monitoring global trade using data on vessel traffic

4 minute readRising uncertainties and geo-political tensions, together with more complex trade relations have increased the demand for data and tools to monitor global trade in a timely manner. At the same time, advances in Big Data Analytics and access to a huge quantity of alternative data – outside the realm of official statistics – have opened new avenues to monitor trade. These data can help identify bottlenecks and disruptions in real time but need to be cleaned and validated.

New work from the OECD Statistics and Data Directorate proposes a new methodology to identify ports, at a higher level of precision than in past research; builds indicators to monitor port congestion and trends in maritime trade flows; and provides a new Dashboard to get detailed information and better understand those flows.

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by oecdstatistics
Globalisation, New Data, Trade

Insights on engagement in global value chains in 2023

8 minute readGetting timely information on global value chains is of key interest to policymaking, given the renewed interest in their resilience since the COVID-19 crisis. This article updates nowcasts of selected TiVA indicators for 2021-23 for 41 countries (36 OECD countries and Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, South Africa) and 24 industries, building on the OECD TiVA database, most recent data on balance of payments, national accounts and short-term indicators of the business cycles.

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by oecdstatistics
Economic Growth, Labour Market, New Data, Productivity

Labour productivity amidst global uncertainties: Insights from 2022-23

4 minute readIn 2022, the economic environment deteriorated, with challenges associated with the aftermath of the pandemic compounded by emerging hurdles and rising global uncertainties. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine led to a widespread energy crisis. Globalisation showed signs of stalling, with global FDI flows falling by 12% in 2022, reflecting deteriorating economic and business conditions. Inflation in 2022 reached record levels, potentially deterring investment and hampering productivity growth by increasing firms’ operating costs and disrupting long-term planning. Labour markets were tight and the number of bankruptcies rose markedly during 2022, while firm entries remained flat. The 2024 edition of the OECD Compendium of Productivity Indicators takes a closer look at how productivity and related indicators evolved under these conditions in 2022 and how this environment affected longer-term productivity trends.

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by oecdstatistics
Climate Change, Digitalisation, New Data, SMEs, Surveys

Business Statistics as Usual Will No Longer Suffice

6 minute readThe business sector contributes 63% to GDP in the OECD and is a key driver of economic development, trade, innovation, and job creation. It is also a key source of emissions. OECD’s business statistics are therefore an important tool for monitoring economic growth and the transition to climate neutrality. In addition, to reduce their carbon footprint, firms must innovate with cleantech and digital solutions. This means radical changes in how they produce, invest and trade, as well as a greater need to monitor these changes. The digitalisation that occurs during these processes presents opportunities for new high-quality data to complement traditional business statistics, with the additional benefit of mitigating the survey fatigue experienced by firms in OECD countries. This blog deals with statistical issues that are particularly relevant to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), but many of them also apply to business statistics in a broader sense.

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by oecdstatistics
Digitalisation, Labour Market

The role of data skills in the modern labour market

7 minute readData collection, processing and analysis skills are in high demand in today’s labour markets and are increasingly found in non-digital industries. This article applies natural language processing to online job advertisements to better understand digital skills in the UK, Canada and the US. Results show that data analytics skills contribute most to the aggregate data-related labour demand in all three countries. The information and communication and finance industries are the most data-intensive in all three countries, while larger differences in labour demand persist across countries for agriculture, mining and quarrying, and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

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by oecdstatistics
Environment, Multinationals

Unveiling the emission reduction plans of multinational enterprises

3 minute readAs the world faces the hottest year on record, national and regional policies to reduce emissions have become a fixture in the public discourse. But for reductions to be achieved, it is important to understand the commitments of the world’s largest companies. The largest companies, especially MNEs, which span borders and whose operations play a substantial role in global emissions, shoulder much of the burden.

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by oecdstatistics
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