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Economic Growth

Can we predict recessions using only unemployment data? Applying the Sahm rule to OECD countries

5 minute readThe accurate and early identification of economic turning points is a longstanding challenge. While in some countries, recession periods are formally determined by business cycle committees – as is the case in the United States – these processes are complex and often take considerable time to conclude. Yet policymakers, economists and financial market participants require more timely signals of shifting economic conditions to support effective and well-informed decision-making.

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Featured

MNE-thing is possible: New OECD-UNSD data release strengthens open evidence on multinational enterprises

5 minute readMultinational enterprises (MNEs) play an increasingly central role in the global economy. They influence trade patterns, investment flows, and production across countries, yet their complex organisational structures can be difficult to map out using traditional statistical sources. The Multinational Enterprise Information Platform (MEIP) was developed to help address this challenge by offering a clearer view of large MNEs and the cross-border networks through which they operate.

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Featured

The Re-Export Puzzle: How the OECD addresses the largest source of distortion in merchandise trade statistics

7 minute readInternational trade statistics offer a picture of trade flows between countries and play a critical role in shaping economic policy, guiding trade negotiations, and supporting evidence-based research and decision-making. These statistics are reported from two different perspectives: that of the exporter and that of the importer. Users expect the two numbers to match but this is not always the case. Addressing them is essential for achieving a coherent and accurate view of international trade.

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Featured, Globalisation, National Accounts, Trade

What is government deficit and why does it matter?

8 minute readGovernment deficit is a key indicator that attracts a lot of policy interest. It reflects when the fiscal balance – also referred to as net lending minus net borrowing – is negative. This article outlines how government total revenue and expenditure are calculated and how the fiscal balance is derived, and it explains why analysts have a particular interest in cases where governments run a deficit.

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by oecdstatistics
Artificial Intelligence, Featured, Government, Policymaking

From Evidence-Informed to Data-Driven

2 minute readFor many years Governments and international organisations have publicly espoused the advantages of evidence-informed decision making. But in recent years we have witnessed a subtle but noteworthy shift in rhetoric away from evidence-informed in favour of data-driven decision making. At first glance this evolution seems welcome – decisions are now driven by data, implying those decisions must be objective and scientific. But is this the case?

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by oecdstatistics
Featured, Globalisation, Trade

5 things you should know about international trade statistics

5 minute readIn 2024, global trade in goods – including agricultural products, energy, electronics, and more – exceeded 24 trillion USD. At the same time, global trade in services – including transport, travel, legal, advertising, and more – grew to 8.7 trillion USD. In this truly interconnected world, where goods are manufactured using materials and components from across the globe, and services can be digitally ordered and/or delivered, understanding international trade statistics is more important than ever.

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by oecdstatistics
Featured, Society

New frontiers for social policy: How does your country compare?

6 minute readThe 2025 OECD Social Policy Ministerial brought together Ministers, policymakers, and global leaders to foster dialogue, share best practices, and strengthen our collective commitment to building resilient, inclusive and fiscally sustainable social protection systems. Social protection must respond to pressing global mega-trends, including population ageing and rapidly changing labour markets, as well as the digital and green transitions, and climate change.

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by oecdstatistics
Featured, Well-being

From data to action: Enhancing children’s lives through better insights

5 minute readUnderstanding and taking informed policy actions to improve child well-being requires reliable data on a range of outcomes – from health and education to social interactions and living conditions. These data aid policymakers in identifying emerging challenges, prioritising areas for improvement, and in  targeting support towards those who need it most. A comprehensive set of high-quality indicators to monitor child well-being can also support holistic, whole-of-government policies that ensure every child enjoys a positive childhood.

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by oecdstatistics
Economic indicators, Featured, New Data

Comparing apples with apples: New PPPs highlight persistent disparities in cost of living

4 minute readTo compare macroeconomic indicators across countries, we must adjust for differences in currencies and price levels to ensure we are comparing apples with apples, and not apples with oranges. Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) are the right tool for this because they are constructed based on prices of a common and comprehensive basket of goods and services, serving both as currency convertors and price deflators. As a result, PPPs are the conversion rates to be used when comparing macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP and price levels, across countries.

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by oecdstatistics
Featured, New Data, Productivity

Nowcasting labour productivity growth with machine learning and mixed-frequency data

4 minute readProductivity is a core determinant of long-term economic growth, living standards, and international competitiveness. Policymakers and analysts rely on productivity trends to guide decisions on growth, competitiveness, and structural reforms. Discover how innovative nowcasting techniques harness machine learning and mixed-frequency data to track labour productivity in near real-time. This approach blends high-frequency indicators—like monthly surveys or industrial output—with more traditional quarterly data. By swiftly capturing changes in economic activity, it provides timely insights into productivity trends and potential turning points. Policymakers and analysts can then react faster, refining forecasts and adapting strategies in a rapidly shifting economy.

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by oecdstatistics
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