Machine Learning

Machine Learning, Trade

Nowcasting trade in value added indicators

8 minute readIntegration in global value chains has been high on the policy agenda since the start of the COVID-19 crisis. But indicators of trade in value added are often published with a long delay, limiting their relevance for policymaking. This column seeks to nowcast those indicators for 41 economies and 24 sectors for 2021 and 2022, using a range of models. The share of domestic value added in exports is estimated to have fallen in 2021-22, while domestic services value-added shares of exports are expected to have been broadly stable and the share of domestic value added embodied in foreign demand is nowcasted to have recovered over the period.

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