Featured, Society

New frontiers for social policy: How does your country compare?

by oecdstatistics
6 minute read

By Maxime Ladaique (Maxime.Ladaique@oecd.org) and Pablo Minondo Canto (Pablo.MinondoCanto@oecd.org), OECD Social Policy Division, and Liva Stokenberga (Liva.Stokenberga@oecd.org), OECD Centre on Well-Being, Inclusion, Sustainability and Equal Opportunity (WISE)

A few weeks ago, we had the privilege of contributing to the 2025 OECD Social Policy Ministerial meeting and High-Level Policy Forum, co-chaired by Portugal and Spain, with Belgium, Canada and Ireland as vice-chairs, under the broad theme “New Frontiers for Social Policy: Investing in the Future”.

This high-level gathering brought together Ministers, policymakers, and global leaders to foster dialogue, share best practices, and strengthen our collective commitment to building resilient, inclusive and fiscally sustainable social protection systems (see more in the video).

Social protection must respond to pressing global mega-trends, including population ageing and rapidly changing labour markets, as well as the digital and green transitions, and climate change.

Fertility, longevity and population ageing are persistent challenges

Social protection systems face growing demands on retirement and care systems even as their resource base shrinks, due to declining working-age populations. While most non-OECD countries have relatively younger populations, they too will experience a shift over time, often at a faster pace, due to rapid increases in life expectancy and sharp declines in fertility. The average total fertility rate (TFR), across the OECD, dropped from 3.3 children per woman in 1960 to 1.5 in 2023, far below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to keep population levels stable (abstracting from migration) (Figure 1). This downward trend is projected to continue in the coming decades.

Figure 1. Total fertility rates
Number of children per woman aged 15 to 49, 1980 and 2023 or latest year

Source: OECD Family Database – Indicator SF2.1

Population ageing also reduces the number of people available to support older individuals. The average OECD old-age to working-age ratio stood at 33 people aged 65 and over per 100 people of working age (20 to 64 years old) in 2024. This ratio is projected to nearly double to 59 by 2064 (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Population ageing
Number of people aged 65 and older, per 100 people of working-age (20–64), projected for 2024 and 2064

Source: United Nations World Population Prospects 2024.

Improving social benefit and service delivery with technological innovation and data

Despite notable progress, gaps in social protection persist across OECD countries. Digital technologies, underpinned by robust data systems, can  bolster the effectiveness of social protection programmes, for example by improving beneficiary identification, simplifying access and enrolment, and making service delivery more efficient via electronic benefit delivery. Through various channels, the modernisation of social protection can help address the perception that social benefits are difficult to access (Figure 3).

Many of the barriers to the full uptake of social programmes – including complex information requirements, hassle costs and social stigma – can be addressed through better use of linked administrative data and new digital technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI) systems. But to seize these opportunities, the associated risks must be addressed, including by ensuring fairness, explainability, accountability and privacy protections, and by guaranteeing and facilitating access for all users. The ongoing OECD Risks that Matter Survey offers insights into people’s expectations for social programmes and highlights barriers in access to social protection.

Figure 3. Perceptions of the accessibility of public benefits
Distribution of responses to the statement ”I feel I could easily receive public benefits if I needed them”, 18 –64 year olds, 2024

Note: Respondents were asked “To what degree do you agree or disagree with the following statements? I feel I could easily receive public benefits if I needed them”. Response options were: 1. Strongly disagree, 2. Disagree, 3. Neither agree nor disagree, 4. Agree, 5. Strongly agree, 6. Can’t choose. RTM-27 refers to the unweighted average for the 27 OECD countries participating in OECD RTM 2024.
Source: OECD Secretariat estimates based on the OECD Risks That Matter survey 2024.

Sustainably financing social protection and designing social investment

Social expenditure is under mounting financial pressure (Figure 4), with increasing numbers of pensioners and recipients of long-term care. On the financing side, shrinking working-age populations in many OECD countries are resulting in lower revenues from social contributions and taxes. In addition, in some countries, informality and non-standard forms of employment challenge the effectiveness of social protection, both in terms of coverage and financing. Shifts in the composition of labour markets are also affecting financing strategies based on social contributions paid by workers in dependent employment.

Well-designed social investment policies can play an enabling role for people over their life course, for human capital development and productivity, and thus for both future economic growth, well-being and fiscal sustainability. Social investment encompasses policies to support human capital formation and promote social inclusion, including investments in child development and well-being; life‑long training, learning and skills; health; active labour market policies; tax/benefit reforms to “make work pay”; and family-friendly policy measures to support work-life balance. By focusing on prevention and strategic design, these policies can lead to better social and economic outcomes, with benefits outweighing costs and generating significant fiscal returns.

Figure 4. Public social expenditure
Public social protection expenditure as % of GDP, 2024 or latest year

Note: Data estimates are for 2024, except Chile, Colombia, Estonia, Israel, Latvia, Lithuania, Mexico, the Slovak Republic and the United Kingdom (2023), Australia, Canada, Costa Rica, Japan and New Zealand (2022), Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania (2021).
Source: Preliminary data from OECD (2025), Social Expenditure Database.

Promoting child well-being and preventing inequalities from early ages

In the context of population ageing, where political and policy attention is shifting to meeting the growing needs of older populations, it becomes ever more crucial to ensure that all children have every opportunity to thrive and are able to fully contribute to societies and economies. Recent evidence from European OECD countries and Canada demonstrates that adults who experienced socio-economic hardship during childhood are less likely to be employed, earn less (approximately 20% less on average), and report poorer health compared to their more advantaged peers. These disadvantages stem from multiple factors across the material, social, and environmental dimensions addressed by the OECD’s work on child well-being. In the dimension of material deprivation of children, for example, in OECD countries one in eight children live in relative income poverty (Figure 5), a higher rate than among adults (one in ten).

Figure 5. Children living in relative income poverty
% of children (0–17) living in families with income below the poverty line, 2022 or latest year

Note: The Poverty line is set at 50% of the national median equivalised disposable income.
Source: OECD (2024) Income Distribution Database. 

Investing in children early is crucial to stop the transmission of disadvantage across generations, and to promote better outcomes over the course of people’s lives. Early investment also comes with the potential to improve the sustainability of social protection systems, by reducing the need for reactive social supports later in life. Under the leadership of the OECD Employment, Social and Labor Affairs committee (ELSAC), a draft OECD Recommendation on Supporting Child Well-being in Times of Profound Change is under development. This instrument aims to provide a common and comprehensive framework for measurement,  monitoring, and integrated policy action, to achieve well-being for all children.

Key priorities going forward

The discussions highlighted several key priorities for OECD countries:

  • Strengthening the preventive role of social protection systems;
  • Ensuring their adaptability to demographic changes;
  • Improving digital service delivery while maintaining accessibility and privacy with a human-centred and rights-oriented technology;
  • Securing sustainable financing mechanisms; and
  • Enhancing child well-being and social mobility.

Discussions also specifically highlighted the importance of addressing gender-based inequalities in social protection systems and ensuring that reforms contribute to greater gender equality and more inclusive societies.

The OECD will continue to support member countries in developing and implementing social protection policies that are both responsive to current challenges and resilient to future shocks. Discussions encouraged future work by the OECD to:

  • Provide guidance on sustainable financing strategies;
  • Develop policy recommendations for various transitions (digital, green, demographic);
  • Promote social investment approaches that generate positive returns for human capital, productivity, and inclusive economic growth; and
  • Continue to provide a platform for exchange of experiences and perspectives.

References